Refugee you can ignore this post, Yahoo kept on rejecting me so trying to fool it by posting here and pasting in the link over there.
Bon_Ten, I totally understand the sleep well @ night factor holding great business and the confidence to hold them during tough times. The last crash I was holding high quality names mixed in with some speculative plays and I got hit with a 40% loss, but what gave me the confidence to hold was valuation. I learned something during the crash I learned to always have cash not having cash to take advantage of some names @ there lows was the biggest mistake of my investment life! Cash is opportunity if anybody is all in now it is a mistake the time to go all in was anywhere near 666 on the S&P. Also, I learned to limit my exposure to illiquid names when we are near a top. Take III.TO I bought this name all the way down to 4 dollars and it went to .93 cents during the crash. I looked @ what mattered @ the time they had more cash than the share price, strong insider ownership, Murray Edwards and Bruce Berkowitz were sizable holders (they owned like 50% @ the time) they had assets worth many more times the current marketcap, and they had great mgt it was a no brainer. My mistake with III.TO during the crisis was holding an illiquid name near a top. Not many people new about this name the volume was non existent so whoever sold had to take whatever the person with money was bidding and that meant much lower prices. It was all irrational behavior, but I would of made a hell of a lot of money if I took a little off the table when I first started buying and put it back in anywhere near .93 cents errrrrrr. When people realized it was not the end of the world III.to went from .93 to well over 20 dollars. I have been trading more last year and this year than ever before the main reason the 35-40% I have in cash is earning nothing plus it works. Buying companies getting irrationally sold off is hard to do for most but it is rewarding most of the time if it makes sense. Sometimes it takes a few weeks to find something that catches your eye but when it does it pays to make the leap. I feel comfortable holding a company when I get a stock setting 52 week lows or all time lows if it makes sense valuation wise and business wise. If you were to look @ David Tempers holdings last filing he was buying GT, DF, and MU all when they were getting killed he was still buying GT and DF after his SEC filing. I was buying not knowing he was buying DF @ this time and I was thinking of GT & MU while he was buying but I did not pull the trigger on those names. I would of made good returns on both of those names if I bought ,but I was thumb sucking. Does not surprise me why he gets great returns he is a bottom feeder there was a writing that came out @ the end of the year that said the 5 worst performing stocks in the S&P and he owned most of them I owned a few also. I would bet he bought more CSCO on his next filing. Here are some names I was buying @ there lows after his filing and I would bet at least 1 will pop up in his portfolio next filing SVU (7.14 was the lowest price I got it), WINN (6.04 was my lowest price), CALM (27.70 was my lowest price) and VOXX(was dirt cheap about a month or 2 ago Ben Grahmn type of stock, but I sold for a quick 25% gain). Look @ the cash flow of DF and SVU @ there lows it is crazy what scared everyone was the debt and analysts. Whoever listens to analysts should NOT be investing money they are idiots. I do not think there is a better way of making money than looking @ the biggest losers they get hit because of panic selling by funds, and investors that lose some money then they get hit again by analyst downgrades after the fact it is nonsense most of the time on the names I look @. If it makes sense valuation wise and business wise you should own it who cares if others lost there mind do to seeing there money decline! It is stealing legally but it works. |
