First, let me say that while I am an Intel bull and want Intel to prosper, I take no joy in AMD's woes.
That said, I think that AMD is in some really deep doo-doo. It's clear that there are some really serious problems with the k-6 that are not going to be fixed quickly. Intel IS being successful in transitioning the market away from socket 7, a move which will accelerate rapidly, and Merced is coming. AMD only had a short window to make their move, and they are in the process of missing it (they may have until 3rd quarter of 98, but no longer, and perhaps not that long). In the meantime, Jerry literally "bet the company" on this, and the principle and interest on BILLIONS of dollars worth of debt starts coming due in 1999.
Frankly, I don't see how they are going to survive this one, and I mean that literally, although the full depth of the financial aspects of the problem may not be apparent for a couple of years yet. |
