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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: james paterson who wrote (2907)11/13/1997 12:38:00 PM
From: Thean  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
TA helps analyze past price movement and predict future trends but TA DOES NOT cause the weakness in the drillers. I have seen this apparently unknown weakness before, in fact more than once since last year. The funny thing is, prices always dropped before analysts and mass media came out and offered all sort of explanations. I think the truth is closer to the perception that the drillers have exceeded their current valuation and people are pocketing profits.

Another irony is we have way too many ultra bulls (many on this thread) who can see only one direction - up. The drillers are in the long term up trend BUT there are always short term cycles - REMEMBER this. The key is timing. By relying on TA as guidance to timing, one can definitely sleeps better regardless of the direction of the drillers. This is what I call risk/reward management and it works.

One can wonder why the prices keep falling after ML and others issued BUY NOW kind of statements (per LT). Think about it, the money that will come back and buy the drillers back up are those that pocketed their profits early on. We will know it when the bottom is reached. I will definitely put all my cash to work at that point.
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