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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (304378)2/20/2011 1:09:11 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
Some history as a clue for other areas still needing to drop more from here...In Florida I found that the worst hit overbuilt ground zero bust markets dropped to perhaps 1995-97 prices with drops as high as 70% off the top. The most solid, desireable, already built out areas with little speculation or overbuilding perhaps dropped back to mid 2002 pricing around a 40% haircut. Condos drops all over the place usually 50-90% plunge from the peak with the worst those built or converted during 2004-07 where most everyone was a speculator who way overpaid and had an exotic mortgage with little if any skin in the game .

You would be right if Seattle had overbuilt as badly as FLA did. It wasn't as bad here and that's why the housing crash was slow to make an impact. Had our economy remained relatively strong this housing mess would have been a blip. And I think the only reason why we are in pain now is because people are still not willing to buy. Meanwhile the apt vacancy rate has dropped below 5% and many new apts are under construction.

Having said all that, I think Seattle's economy may be encountering some problems. I don't know if it has to do with the general malaise afflicting this country or something structural more specific to the local economy but it bares watching closely.

Its a weird time and nothing is going quite like it used to.
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