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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (1579)11/13/1997 2:44:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (1) of 5676
 
Hi Thomas,
Sure....the markets can go below 2000 and even 200....I just do not believe
it will come about at this time or even in the near futurer. It will take
something totally unexpected to disturb the world wide market trends
established by modern financial systems and political bodies. See my post
at #1586 of this thread.
.
The prospect of being able to formulate models for long-wave economic cycles
of prosperity and depression has been the topic of much discussion amongest
scholars, economists and fiancial analysts for years. Resently and noteably at
MIT's Sloan School of Management...Systems Dynamic Group.
.
Arnold Toynbee, the now forgotten historian who died in 1975, with his
12 volume 'A Study of History' was very eloquent. He attempted to formulate
an intergrated view of the cyclical nature of human socities. He compared
the history of 21 different civilizations and traced a cyclical pattern of
growth, maturity and decay in them all. He saw no reason why the great
modern powers would not also follow the same patterns he had discovered.
But he was far from an empirist....more a mythologist or metaphysician than
an empirical historian. But his work points out an underlying cyclical
pattern to civilizations. He is another example of the on going fascination
with this subject. If interested there is a condensed version of his work.
.
Kondratieff's prediction of the great crash and ensueing world wide depression
of the late 1920's- 30's, was highly accurate. He also predicited the
tremendous economic growth that would follow that great economic ex-plosion.
He believed that exact measurments were obtainable in 50 - 60 year cycles
in free market economys and his work has been called the "K Wave". Today,
his work is all but ignored and in the cat house...so to speak.
Presently, the claims he made in the early 1900's about the 1920's - 30's
and the 1980's-90's are being played out or...."are played out".
He hoped his work would bring attention to the waiting ex-plosion of our
times...and spare us the full force of the cycles he discovered.
.
The value of the "K Wave" and The Eliot Wave Theory are quide posts and
excellant background filters to mark where we might be in the theory.
Some believe that both these works were fulfilled in 1987....others that
computers have compressed the cyclical actions and that the knowledge of these
potential theories allowed people like Greenspan to anticipate there "Effects"
and lay contingencies to meet there eventualities. Hence the Exchange
Stabilization Fund and others like it. The historical proof is still
being determined as we watch today.
.
I personally believe these cycles have validity and exist, but cannot predict
how participants - at their time in history - will handle the effects of the
cycle at hand. Cycles exist...there effects are open to self-determination.
Their existance are determined and how they play out unknown.

My Best
Chip

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