Marshall,
It used to be legal in the 80s, but I don't know about now ...... actually it was big-lunch-time in the old world at 7am your time. At least in the timezones we are ahead of the new world.
Sorry, but have to go back to the Regranex discussion. "Dermagraft numbers were far superior" to Regranex? I am not so sure about that! I know we can't fully compare the ATIS trial with Chiron's Regranex trial (12 weeks treatment time versus 20 weeks), but at least the end results don't differ very much:
Dermagraft - 50.8% complete healing (31.7% of the placebo group)
Regranex - 48% complete healing (25% of the placebo group)
Yes, you are right Dermagraft heals faster, etc. etc., but all I am saying is: Don't count this one out! The diabetic foot ulcer market may be split, and Dermagraft will probably get the severe cases. But does anybody know the percentage of severe cases??? Because in the end ATIS and S&N may end up with the smaller segment.
Does anyone follow the recommendations of our old buddy, Eric Hecht? Remember his ATIS-downgrade in 1996? I think we all do. He still seems to love the terminator game. Now Centocor. Oooouch. I have checked some of his recommendations in the past but still cannot make up my mind about him. Is he really good or just delivering his clients buying opportunities?
Coming back to ATIS. Ever tried to put ATIS in a discounted cash flow model? If not, try this. What you will find out, is that net present value lies somewhere in between $18 and $26 (it is of course just a rough valuation tool), depending on the different scenarios and parameters you use (discount rate, pe, product pricing, market share, etc., etc.). Doesn't look that bad, right? Approximately 30%-85% above the current quote. But then take other biotech companies in a
similar development stage, and do the same. Surprise, surprise! Most of them have a fair value of more than 150% above the current stock price. One point why I think expectations in ATIS have, at least in the past, been above average. ATIS has never really been way out of sync with its true value, IMO. And with "true value" I mean calculated on probabilities that are the statistical standard for Phase I, II and III. Everything else in the price is excessive hope, greed, fear, panic, love, hate, and too much alcohol ....... most of the biotechs are priced on one of these factors.
But actually almost everything on this planet is priced on one of these factors.
Have a nice day,
Harry |
