charts: solar, wind, natgas:
TAN is back down to $8, so solar stocks are almost in "buy" range. The 200dma has turned up, a bullish sign, but the stocks have basically gone sideways (in a wide range) for 2 years. The latest high ($9.16), was a bit lower than the previous ST high ($9.30), which was much lower than the January 2010 high ($11.43). So, there is no indication any LT uptrend is beginning. BTDSTR (buy the dip, sell the rally) still makes sense. At some point, BuyAndHold will be the winning strategy, but we aren't there yet, IMO. The stocks have given back the rally caused by all the excellent 4Q10 reports. There are still far too many macro risks (bankrupt Europe cutting subsidies, U.S. global warming Deniers dismantling the EPA, China raising interest rates to stop inflation).
FAN shows the same pattern of lower highs. However, wind stocks are far closer to their 2009 lows, than solar stocks. I recently sold some at $10.50, having waited in vain for $11. All through 2010, I have slowly become less bullish on wind, and more bullish on solar. Solar is less of a commodity than I'd originally thought.
Natgas, energy in general, the overall market, any commodity, or gold, have performed much better than alt-energy stocks, since the recession bottom 2 years ago. The S&P500 has doubled. Many of the alt-energy stocks are favorites of short-sellers. I think it makes sense to balance any alt-energy holdings with fossil fuel stocks, and my favorite is natgas. Current natgas prices are uneconomic, which means they have to rise, either by less production, or higher demand (probably a bit of both). It is the cleanest fossil fuel. Lots of big companies, and countries, are making big bets on natgas. I'll be buying FCG on 10% pullbacks in the S&P500.
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