Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 297.50

-2.6%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51292)	3/3/2011 9:51:32 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95383

Hi Jacob, Full disclosure - I am on the opposite side of your trade (being short KLIC). I say that generally as I'm not long KLIC. I think the peak cycle call is very premature and does no give the smart phone/tablet growth its proper respect for huge growth in units and infrastructure. Today's IBD o page B3 has avery good write up on Nvls and Vsea two market share gainers within the SCE sector. Key to this article describes both of these stocks as breaking out of first stage patterns Nvls in late November and Vsea in a "first stage cup and handle on Dec 3. Generally both of these break outs only yielded a 10-15 % GAIN,THEN TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DECLINE TO ITS 10 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE. Current prices now reflect a 40-50% runup from the first stage pattern breakout. As previously pointed out Ter has just recently broken out to the high teens - a laggard vs front end equipment makers-in terms of being a late breakout but actually much stronger in percent up-so far. My fav Cohu has been gravitating near its 50 day moving average - unfortinately greatly lagging as it has yet to break out of its first stage pattern - I call it in the low of the handle stage of a cup and handle pattern. Cohu makes test handlers and does historically lag behin in breaking out relative to the front end equipment makers. In past cycles, 40-50 % gains would be very anemic. These companies have gone no where in 10 years and I expect much more than 40-50 percent from their breakouts. Balance sheets margins and revenue growth all suggest the adverse times of the past have made these dogs and ownership has beeen accumulated into strong hands - imo. The wave of new products combined with new and larger markets gives this sector a much longer growth cycle than many expect.The sectpr has in fact been beat up by negative analyst talk for a decade. I do not think the run up is over until that analyst talk does a 180 - as I believe their BS to be a very credible fade trade. I worry about your short position - but have great respect for your tenacity and market read. Just my two cents and I think Cohu has been grossly overlooked and is a great buy here at 14.50 ish with the 200 sma - today at 14.08. The CEO of Cohu is ultra conservative and injects sector strength doubt in every webcast.That coupled with the lag of back end business has depressed this stock's price -which I view as a very good value and play. The chart is attached: screencast.com Bob

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next