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Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS)

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From: tuck	3/3/2011 2:45:40 PM
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Today's failure of Bydureon against Victoza led me to dig into the Takeda obesity program. If Bydureon ever gets past the FDA, it is likely to be a market failure. The big needle, the inferiority to Victoza, etc. Byetta sales are lagging. It seemed to me the share price had a significant amount of success in obesity priced in it. Victoza is also being studied -- as Nigel noted a couple of years ago -- in obesity. NVO's major trial won't be completed until 2013. The trial that presumably got Takeda on board is here: nature.com Not sure if we have a similar enough endpoints to make a rational comparison to Victoza studies so far. If I am reading this correctly, the weight loss of ~12.5% for the p/m combo gives it the nod, but there are confounding variables. Message 26042117 Can't get the full article. The Takeda/Amylin study of 200 patients will be completed in about a year. They are studying the pramlintide/metreleptin combo: clinicaltrials.gov I see Amylin as dead money pending these results (though good results in a study of Byetta in subjects with gastric restriction should come out shortly & move the stock a bit . . . this is a smaller market). Anyone else have a view? Cheers, Tuck

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