<I worry about your short position - but have great respect for your tenacity and market read.>
Thank you. I've learned a lot from you and others here, especially those who don't agree with me.
I've been selling steadily since early December, and so far I've been wrong. The market has gone straight up, the SOX has outperformed the market, and I've left a lot of money on the table.
I'm really not worried about my KLIC short. I've followed the company for 10 years. It's a small enough % of my portfolio, it could double from here, and I'd just keep waiting for the downcycle, when I'm certain it will reach $5.
I could continue to be wrong all through 2011, but I won't change my strategy. I'd rather sit in cash, and/or hedge my remaining long positions with shorts, than risk my capital, at this point in the bull market.
Eventually, if not this year, then next year, sentiment and the cycle will turn, and I'll go long, very long, probably use margin again. The SOX and S&P500 may take out the 2007 highs, but I'll just wait. Sooner or later, I'll be buying back, at prices lower than today. I'm a patient man. |
