<I think the 'imperial' borders of China are already set>
It's easy to see the future. Just extrapolate the consistent patterns of history. Technology changes, but the human heart and mind doesn't.
When Empires spread:
One: missionaries and traders appear. They challenge local religions and local economic elites.
Two: the Empire buys and builds assets, and moves production outward, dominating culture and economy.
Three: finally, the soldiers and administrators move in.
Example of Step One missionary activity:
Confucius Institutes in 63 nations
en.wikipedia.org
Example of Step Two:
Turkmenistan–China gas pipeline
en.wikipedia.org
China is, today, well into Step One everywhere, and beginning on Step Two. Chinese companies have, in the last 20 years, moved into Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, in a big way. They are even buying energy assets in Canada. China is dependent on imports of oil, a growing list of agricultural products, many other commodities. As their power grows, they will be able (and very willing) to use that power, to ensure the flow of raw materials, and markets for the products.
My guess is, the Chinese Empire of the 21st Century will probably copy the 20th Century American Empire: it will be on every continent, and rule will be indirect (by proxy). The locals will get to pretend they are independent, while Chinese will hold effective economic, political, and military control. Just like the way the Brits ruled Egypt until 1954, the way the U.S. ruled Cuba until 1959, the way the Roman Empire had nations with "Friend and Ally" status (de facto protectorates). |
