<how long before water is under the bridge ...>
I only care about the past, as it affects the future.
The chances of a nation (or company, or person) repeating a crime, are proportional to their unwillingness to admit and (sincerely, publicly) apologize for past crimes. So:
I am very certain Germany won't repeat WW2 and the Holocaust, because they have spent 60 years apologizing, very publicly, very sincerely.
The last 2 CEOs of BP were fired, after lax safety standards caused deaths and environmental disasters. The current CEO says he knows the corporate culture needs to change, so I'm fairly certain BP will be more safety-conscious in the future.
I'm somewhat less certain, that the U.S. won't repeat what we did to Japanese-Americans in WW2 (with some other distrusted group, like Muslim-Americans), because our apology for that crime, has been tepid.
I'm even less certain, that Japan won't repeat the Rape of Nanking, and the mass forced sexual slavery of Korean women during WW2, because their apologies for those crimes have been very insincere. Their school textbooks don't even mention it.
I'm even less certain, that China won't repeat what they've done in Tibet, anytime and anywhere the opportunity presents itself. China has not even admitted the crime.
I'm very certain the U.S. banking system, is going to repeat the mistakes that caused the last recession, because none of the CEOs have admitted making any mistakes, or been punished or discredited.
A drunk or drug addict, who won't admit his addiction, is certain to continue abusing. The first step to sobriety is to say, "I am an alcoholic...". Same thing, when a nation is addicted to violence. Or debt.
Redemption begins with repentance. |