Mohan, today's action in INTC was not particularly good. I thin that if you wait until sometime tomorrow arounf\d 2:30 to 3:00 you'll have a better deal. I doubt the Japanese are going to lower thei income taxes, they are going to liquify monetarily before they lax fiscally. They are scared of a wave of consumerism which will change for good their current endemic net exporter status. A tax cut, they fear, may direct all these fund into importing goods, and while they give the world lip service that they are doing their damnest to open their market, it is my opinion that they are lying through their teeth. I think they will pay the price and we will see the Nikkei under 14,000 in the not too distant future. If they lowerr the their taxes, it would be just an iota to try and avert an immediate collapse of the Nikei, but the fiscal tightness, is in my opinion, sacrosanct.
Now comes the real puting my head on the copping block. Because I do not think that they will come up with a real fiscal stimulus to their economy, by the time trading is over in Japan, the Nikkei will flutter and by the time we close yesterday, we will have visited sub 7400 territory, and probably stay there, unless the bear chivken out and cover for the weekend. The bears have become "gutless" recently and cover positions on any inkling of a mediocre rally. But then, after the goring they have been delt for the last few years, it is not difficult to understand. That is one of the reason that I do not expect a precipitous decline before the end of this year and that I think most of the damage will be done in late January and in February.
Zeev |
