<I think that home ownership in America will drop considerably over the next decade>
I have considered doing exactly the same as you, buying rental housing. I agree, that home ownership will decline. That's bearish for stocks that move with home ownership. I haven't decided, whether it's bullish for rentals.
The problem is, people go from "owning" (actually, it was the bank that owned it, all along), to renting, because their income isn't enough to justify owning. For most Americans, real incomes (inflation-adjusted) haven't gone up in decades. I don't see that changing.
There may be a temporary increase in rental rates, as a huge number of people get foreclosed on. But, after that, rental rates can't go up, for the same reason housing prices can't: people don't have jobs, and when they do, they are looking at flat or declining real incomes. So the downward pressure on housing prices, may be matched (after a brief upward blip) by a downward pressure on rents (and rental property prices). JMHO. |
