Mason,
Even with its temporarily increased float (extra 3 mln shares put in play by debenture holders), CYMER is relatively undervalued.
To fall in line with the sector (30-40% correction since August),it must come back to $22 (my pessimistic estimate) or $27 (Curlton's number in his reply to me some time ago). If debenture holders start covering (would be nice, but who knows), float will decrease and price will rise to $33-$40. So, CYMER's short-term upside potential is significant.
Of course, this assumes that equipment makers sector does not deteriorate any further. If worries about reducted cap spending in Asia continue, many fund managers will not bother to differentiate productivity upgrades and new fab starts, they will simply dump every equipment maker and CYMER as a "pure play" will get clobbered once again.
So far, AMAT that is frequently used as a proxy for the sector did test the low of 29.25 and held. We'll see about their earnings/ conference call. I think, right now it is a more representative indicator for Cymer than ASMLF or SVGI.
Regards,
Y.
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