Mike, I think you hit the nail on the head when you suggested that
we sometimes get blindsighted by what we see on the surface.
First of all, my analysis is fundamental not technical. As you well
pointed out, I have been advocating the company that has had
the inferior stock chart in the past several months. Some of the
SYSF advocates have suggested "coming along for the ride", but
being ready to jump out at any sign of danger.
Second, the only major PC manufacturer that SYSF has signed so
far is AST. DEC and Wang are big companies, but not in the PC
world. You see how SystemSoft works. They tell you that they
are close to signing with Compaq and Intel and others, and you
(and institutions that don't any better) jump on the bandwagon.
As far as I'm concerned, that type of PR should be illegal. Wait
until the agreement is signed, not just in the mind of SystemSoft.
Phoenix will be at the Sept. 24 Intel conference (the CFO confirmed
this to me). They have been characteristically quiet about their
role there, unlike Systemsoft that was announcing major things
even before the agenda had been completed. I believe SS will
be mentioned, since they are listed along with a dozen or so
demonstrators (but Intel also explains that they are among many
others).
My analysis about how SystemSoft will solve PC problems was
originally based on the analyst report by Volpe, Welty (the analyst
that all the SYSF followers quote when they want to project big
numbers in the next few years). They stated that SS will solve
many hardware problems locally, but most software remotely.
If you read SYSF's info., this is consistent. When they list items
that will be resolved with the product, they list several hardware
components and near the bottom put "application software".
Andy Grove recently backed up what Cybermedia said by saying
that Win95 PnP has been less effective than hoped because of
all the application software released to the market at once.
SS, in my opinion, is 90% PR and 10% technology while the opposite
is true for Phoenix. As I've stated before, Phoenix believes that if
they produce the products and good earnings that the stock price
will follow. SS, on the other hand, seems to be the proverbial tail
wagging the dog.
PTEC blew their relationship with Intel? Where did you hear that?
PTEC just signed a 7 year agreement to be the EXCLUSIVE BIOS
software provider for Intel at the same time Intel bought 6% of PTEC.
Go through even more recent press releases. Based on quotes in
those, Intel is thrilled by PTEC's strategy in USB and special purpose
PCs (the category that includes smart phones). Read at ptltd.com.
Mike, I know you're concerned about your investment. You have
been using a technical approach (graphs) which is one way to
make a lot of money, but a different way than a primarily
fundamental analysis approach. Maybe you shouldn't change
your investment philosophy in mid-stream. |
