Zeev,
Many on this thread are of opinion that current players will continue strategic transition from .35mu to .25mu despite the (or even because of) DRAM glut, currency/loans problems notwithstanding. In this case, CYMER will not be seriously affected.
Of course, fund managers may look at this differently, and clobber the whole sector without differentiating between stocks, so your concerns are valid. However, this stock had been so badly beaten since coming up with good quarter, that today nobody wants to think of more punishment.
I saw an analysis on posted on AMAT thread (rating it #1 buy and suggesting that typical cycle for equipment makers is 2 years up, one year down and we are still in the beginning of the up trend). In the same breath, the analyst estimated the short-term downside risk at 30% -based on concerns similar to yours.
Unfortunately, stocks in this sector are subject to wild swings. For me, $17 seemed a reasonable price to average down, even if later we could see an even more attractive price (hope this will not happen)
Regards,
Y. |
