Analyst: January IC sales "shocking"
Chips: J.P. Morgan Turns Bullish; Upgrades TXN, XLNX, ONNN
(No doubt in my mind - this data was sold way in advance to WS analysts; I noticed there was only one press release when the data was published; click on the link - might be worth plotting the data)
March 8, 2011 - It's not fair to call one month a "trend," but preliminary data for January IC sales shows astonishing strength that may cause everyone to already rethink their full-year predictions, says one analyst.
WSTS data shows January 2011 IC sales were $21.4B, up 16% from a year ago and -4.5% from December -- that's the smallest calendar-year-opening decline in more than two decades, says IC Insights. For comparison, the average January vs. December sales decline spanning 1990-2010 has been -17% -- and more recently, the past decade (1999-2010) it's been -20%.
Sequential comparisons also bode well, too. Historically there's been a slight decline sequentially in 1Q vs. 4Q IC sales (-1.2% average since 1984), with the biggest bump in 1986 (11%). But extrapolating January 2011's IC figures with the 1999-2010 average growth for February (3%) and March (28%) suggests IC sales for 1Q11 could top $71.6B, a 14% surge (and a 27-year high). Even a worst-case scenario using the historically poorest sequential IC growth rates for February (-7%) and March (19%) translate to slight growth in 1Q11 (3%).
And adding the latest macroeconomic data -- US unemployment falling to 8.9%, US factory orders climbing 3.1% in January (a >4-year high), and rising global purchasing managers index (PMI) -- "it appears the IC market is set for another year of solid growth," say the analysts.
There's a wild card at play, though -- if the price of oil stays at or below ~$100/barrel, the IC market should see ~10% growth, predicts IC Insights. But if oil prices surge higher (and stay there), that puts more pressure on US consumers and businesses, and could dampen the global economic recovery.
electroiq.com |
