hello pezz, today's report
(i) returned to hong kong, a vulnerable society in too many ways, because we depend on much of the same technologies as do japan and the rest of the oecd world
(ii) in so far as i am concerned, the relevant non-usa happenings (north african insurrection / civil war, middle eastern revolution/intervention, european sovereign default process, china economic slap-down, australia flood-in and housing bubble, and japan everything except godzilla-resurrection) have all been tee-ed up, already in play, not yet played out, and certainly not yet discounted for the very worst.
(iii) we can know neither the workouts nor the work-arounds, because there are none. in the hands of fate from here on out.
(iv) much of the above should get far worse, even as team america continues on road to permanent insolvancy, to be resolved only one possible way, the mathematical way.
(v) somewhere out there is a mindless non-answer, and that be "usa qe3 usa qe3 usa qe3", which shall be exercised pre-emptively, or be forced by enveloping circumstances, of oil shock, capital w/draw contagion, competitive easing, or whatever else. the how does not matter. the is holds aces.
(vi) we may be blessed with a replay / fractal-scale-up of lehman crises, to the exponent of 10. this time substitute saudi arabia for lehman and japan for aig.
iow, too big to fail this time may well fail because we are talking about wars and revolutions, mother nature and dirty bombs, as opposed to simple accounting and just liquidity.
with so much already known knowns and in fluid play, we know except for the deluge/quantity of faithless paper money that must at some point come our way.
i edged another step towards true safety; if i am wrong, i double down and would be bailed out, deservingly of natural course.
this afternoon i kept it simple, trying to be the purist
(i) doubled own paper platinum @ hkd 13,308 per oz (equiv usd 1,710) - i must make mention that this is the first time nanyang commercial bank paper platinum traded at premium to supposed spot. no matter.
(ii) added paper gold holdings at hkd 13,028 per tael (equiv usd 1,395 / oz)
going forward ...
(i) i do not feel like exiting my less-than-full-wallop precious metal miners, still have much capacity to add, and so may just ride the wave crest down, and sell a lot of puts at the 'bottom' to make up the difference due me.
(ii) i am unsure what if anything i would do about shorting general equity market; i shall decide when i decide. i feel uncomfortable about shorting the general market.
i may or do one of those triple leveraged short etf on the worst of the garbage.
comrades of the fellowship, good combat, let us prey after praying, and then hopefully prey again, for many must fall so that a few may rise.
tout ou rien, tj |
