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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 172.27+4.6%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: FJB who wrote (3472)11/14/1997 3:14:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Robert,

RE: "Could you restate why you believe these numbers to be accurate, because they do not jibe with the many press releases coming out of stepper manufacturers and semi-manufcturers, and the economic imperatives of making chips."

I don't "believe" these numbers are "accurate". I do believe that Merrill Lynch is "reputable" and the fact that they developed these numbers along with non-DUV numbers for a Nikon report and not for CYMI lends credibility. The "many press releases" and the "economic imperatives" are anecdotal, do not constitute an alternative analysis, and are, in part, industry hype. In fact, I have read press releases which suggest that DUV tools are difficult to make, difficult to use, and will be introduced more slowly than some optimistic forecasts. Again, this is also anecdotal. I have an open mind and I welcome any alternate DUV forecast which gives numbers and is prepared by an independent analyst.

I think you are not being reasonable when you infer that Merrill Lynch research may be under an erroneous impression. Remember, nobody is denying the move to DUV and sub-0.25u and nobody is calling it discretionary, but DUV numbers will vary depending upon the number of mix and match systems and the number of layers that are completed with I-line steppers. Also, the rate of transition to sub-.25u and 300mm wafers is very much a debatable issue.

Cary
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