FAN (wind ETF), and my positioning:
Wind and solar are up, due to Japan events. I am sceptical, that Japan really changes anything. China and India and other emerging nations, were the big new markets for electricity in general, and nuclear specifically. I think they will think about it, and then continue with previous plans, to build out nuclear. I'm personally against this, but that's what I think will happen.
Long-term, I don't think recent events hurts nuclear, or helps solar/wind. Short-term, recent events are going to push all stocks down. The market hasn't yet appreciated the secondary effects on the global economy, of the destruction in Japan. How many components of how many products, are single-sourced from Japan, from factories that are damaged, or can't move goods on damaged roads and ports?
And the risks in Japan haven't been quantified yet. It could get a lot worse. If multiple spent fuel pools dry up and burn in open air, and the wind is blowing towards Tokyo...
disclosure: sold some FAN today at $11.01; will buy back at $9. Holding shorts in semi-equip and airlines, with no plan to cover. Since late November 2010, I have steadily sold long positions, and initiated shorts. I will continue to do this.
FAN Bullish signs:
1. broke the pattern of lower highs, by getting above $10.81
2. stock crossed above 200dma
3. 50dma crossed above 200dma
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