Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 297.50

-2.6%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (51476)	3/16/2011 6:51:24 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 95383

I have nothing against shorting. I have done it many times in the past. I will say that one needs to be much more nimble shorting than buying long. After all you actually own nothing but a borrowed stock, sold short, loaned to you, on margin from a brokerage that can and will change their margin loan rules arbitrarily. I know this because it has happened to me. Being long I am more concerned about oil over $100.00 than the Japanese problems being long now. Let me share a couple of charts on oil and remind everyone that this recent selling began before the earthquake in Japan: Longer term chart on oil versus the S&P 500. Note that when the price of oil runs over $100.00 that the market has sold off in the past as well as now: As it concerns the SOX and semiconductor related stocks look for a rebound soon in the market even if oil prices don't take off back above $100.00 per barrel. Why because virtually every chart of a major market index will bounce once an RSI of 30 is reached on a six month daily chart unless we are in a bear market: I look for a bounce very soon in the market overall. How sustainable will it be? Oil prices and the price of gasoline itself will make all the difference: One of the gals who works for me has forced her son to take the bus to school due to the high cost of gas. My brother in law is not going to take a vacation in their motor home because of the same thing. The high cost of gasoline can and will kill this market rally if it stays above $100.00 a barrel for any real length of time. RtS

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