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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (147986)	3/23/2011 6:41:30 AM
From: ChanceIs	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 206200

RE: Federal Deficit See the tables below taken from Charles Hugh Smith: oftwominds.com Archie is making the case that the deficit starting shrinking per in late '09 per TREASURY data. Smith is using OMB data. They don't agree. I read a while ago - couldn't find reference - that the count of months of consecutive deficit hit a new record. While the federal government has run an ANNUAL deficit back to 1957, there are usually some MONTHS with surpluses. These months would typically be January and April when large quarterly payments come in. I remain skeptical that the deficits are shrinking (pre Libya). I would agree that the best way to address the situation is to grow out. However we haven't had a surplus since 1957. The argument that deficit growth relative to GDP growth has some merit, although I think it tenuous. The real fun and games start when Bernanke can no longer hold down interest rates. _________________________________________ Let's compare Federal spending in 2004, 2007 and 2010. Remarkably, the Federal government spends $1 trillion more a year now than it did a mere three years ago and $1.5 trillion more than it did a brief six years ago. Here are the numbers from the Office of Management and Budget website: whitehouse.gov revenues 2004 $1.88 trillion 2007 $2.56 trillion 2010 $2.16 trillion spending 2004 $2.29 trillion 2007 $2.72 trillion 2010 $3.72 trillion deficit 2004 –$412 billion 2007 –$160 billion 2010 –$1.3 trillion In three years, Federal spending jumped almost exactly $1 trillion, or 36.7%. Here are the deficits of the past three years, and the estimated shortfalls for fiscal years 2011 and 2012: 2008: $458 billion 2009: $1.4 trillion 2010: $1.3 trillion 2011: $1.5 trillion (est.) 2012: $1.6 trillion (est.) (CBO estimate for 2011) total: $6.258 trillion in five years.

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