<Peak People will be in 2037>
We are now finding out, what happens after the Demographic Transition. First, death rates fall. Then birth rates fall. Then, and this is the surprising part, birth rates fall further, to below replacement rate, and populations fall.
Just as many governments have intervened in the last 50 years, to achieve lower birth rates, in the future they will intervene, to force higher birth rates. So, by 2037, Chinese 5 Year Plans will include a Production Quota from fertile women. Applications to join the Communist Party (and get all the perks) will be denied, for those who have failed in their patriotic duty to procreate. The 3-child family will be mandatory. Government functionaries will keep track of everyone's activities, and guide behavior, using the appropriate rewards and punishments.
Laissez-faire free-market baby-making doesn't work, as it results in disastrous over- or under-population. ZPG is the only LT viable solution, and this isn't going to happen without a Plan. The "Free World" will, unhappily, be forced to follow the Chinese model.
Parenting will become a profession, hopefully paid better than the Oldest Profession. Students will be able to major in Parenting in college, if they choose that career track. To supervise other parents, will require a PhD and licensing (like lawyers and doctors). Since many women won't have any children, the professional Parents will have 4-10 children each (like most women did in the 1800s).
People 50 years ago, couldn't imagine the bizarre things that are normal today (like everyone walking around talking to people who Aren't There, on their cellphones). Similarly, the future will be more bizarre than we can imagine. |
