R2 B2 R2P - it's how we got involved in the Libyan civil war:
R2P = Doing Good by B2
March 23, 2011 - 11:51 pm - by Richard Fernandez
The Washington Post says that fears are growing that a humanitarian catastophe will overtake cities beseiged by Khadaffi, whose forces are reputed to be shelling rebel cities once the aircraft overhead are momentarily gone.
Aid organizations scrambled Wednesday to prepare for large-scale relief operations in Libya, as fears grew of a potential humanitarian crisis in a key city besieged by government forces.
International military forces on Wednesday stepped up attacks on government troops in Misurata, 131 miles east of Tripoli. The airstrikes seemed to bring a temporary respite from the fighting that had raged for six days between forces loyal to Moammar Gaddafi and rebels, as government tanks retreated from the city center.
But after nightfall, the tanks returned and resumed their attacks, according to a doctor at the city’s main hospital. “They are shelling everywhere,” he said by telephone.
[Q'Daffy's forces will learn, if they haven't already, they need human shields to protect themselves from attack from the air. If Q'Daffy can show the world civilian casulties of the bombing, the Muslim world and many others will turn on the intervention. He shouldn't have intervened, but now that he has Obama needs to push to get Q'Daffy gone asap before the tide of world opinion turns. ]
The danger has now been recognized; Washington Post said the US military had warned Khadaffi to leave population centers alone, but quoted reports that there are 80,000 displaced persons already. AID agencies said they were scrambling to find supplies to meet the need. A conference was being convened in London to figure out the necessary response to get ahead of the curve.
Meanwhile, Britain said it would host an international conference in London on Tuesday for all countries involved in the Libya situation, including those not contributing military assets. In addition to discussing implementation of United Nations resolutions on Libya, Foreign Secretary William Hague said the gathering would “consider the humanitarian needs of the Libyan people and identify ways to support the people of Libya in their aspirations for a better future.”
The UN is now sounding the alarm. “UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Libya Rashid Khalikov on Wednesday expressed concern about reports of ongoing fighting in Libya and the humanitarian situation inside the country.” Migrant workers were struggling to get out; people were stuck in makeshift camps, etc, etc.
Yet nothing about these developments is surprising. Any damned fool could see it coming. And as for getting ahead of the curve, one wag remarked that the sooner you fall behind, the quicker you can catch up. On March 19, 2011 at the start of the Libyan operation, this site noted that a humanitarian crisis was a distinct possibility. I wrote:
Can NATO Topple the Gaddafi Regime? Yes, if it can impose a blockade lasting several months, is willing to risk to risk the destruction of Libyan oil, and can eventually deploy UAVs over Libya. But the worst thing they can do is let the fighting drag on, because it will almost inevitably lead to a humanitarian crisis in Libya. …
The control of the Med would be largely wasted unless NATO can open the port of Benghazi to allied shipping. … As can be seen from the map below, the water supply infrastructure is located to the west, again beyond Benghazi. If Khadaffi can drive, by terror or ethnic cleansing, his opponents into rebel lines, the onus of feeding and watering perhaps millions will fall to NATO. They cannot do this without a port. …
Finally, for the rebels to hold on to the ground they will need persistent air support. European air power is limited by endurance. … Persistent coverage is best provided by UAVs, which can be deployed after the Libyan air force is completely swept from the skies. …
what can Khadaffi do? If he is suicidal and cares nothing for political consequences, he will probably attempt to create a humanitarian crisis as soon as possible. Such oil facilities as he cannot hold or feasibly protect, he may dynamite, in the dirtiest possible way. He can attempt to seize as many hostages from among the remaining Westerners as he possibly can. The Duck can also smash the system which brings water to the coast. Finally, he may unleash one last spasm of terrorism against the West and may, as a final act of self-immolation, blow all the oil facilities in his power before giving them up to the enemy. All of these tactics were used, in one way or the other, either by himself or by Saddam Hussein in Iraq, so they will instantly occur to Khadaffi.
This seemed so self evident as to be hardly worth mentioning. It was obvious that an early and decisive end to the Libyan operation would be the best way to avoid a prolonged torment of civilians. Victory, not a conference in London discussing the distribution of relief supplies, is the common-sense exit to a humanitarian crisis. And yet the objective of victory or regime change is the one thing neither the administration, nor whatever command structure comes after it relinquishes the initiative is at pains not to utter.
Not how do you not work for a victory and still be surprised by a humanitarian crisis? It staggers the imagination to think that professional military planners would not have anticipated these difficulties. And it is almost certain that they did. Gomer Pyle himself would have forseen it clearly. Therefore a fiasco of such proportions can only be the work of politics: politics, that dismal science in which the shortest way between two points is a trip in the opposite direction.
How could this happen? Maureen Dowd in an opinion piece titled The Flight of the Valkyries, half-seriously believes that President Obama was stampeded into Libya operation by the machinations of Susan Rice, Samantha Power, Gayle Smith and Hillary Clinton, assisted perhaps by the hovering spirit of Helen Caldicott. She writes:
When Mr. Obama listened to his militaristic muses, it gave armchair shrinks lots to muse about. As one wrote to me: “Cool, cerebral president chooses passion and emotion (human rights, Samantha, Hillary, Susan) over reason and strategic thinking (Bob Gates, Tom Donilon). Is it the pattern set up by his Mom and Michelle — women have the last word?”
White House aides smacked back hard on the guys vs. girls narrative. A senior administration official e-mailed the Politico’s Mike Allen that Ms. Power, Ms. Smith and Ms. Clinton weren’t even in the meeting where the president decided to move forward and tell Ms. Rice to seek authority at the United Nations for a no-fly zone.
Except that it ain’t cute, even in the words of Dowd, because such thoughtlessness can lead to deaths. Disturbingly, John Podhoretz argues that it might actually be true and that the Obama administration was guided in the Libya decision by a new doctrine, a concept called “Responsibility to Protect” or R2P, otherwise known as Do-gooding by B2. The strategic bomber, that is.
According to Rogin, the governing doctrine that helped Obama to make his decision to act was not an appeal to the national interest, but rather to a recent concept promulgated at the United Nations called “responsibility to protect,” or R2P.
R2P is an effort to create a new international moral standard to prevent violence against civilians.
In her career as a genocide expert, Power was an indefatigable proponent of R2P, and now on the National Security Council has been “trying to figure out how the administration could implement R2P and what doing so would require of the White House going forward.” Hillary is her ally in this effort, it appears.
It seems scarcely credible that a military operation could have been based on so flimsy a strategic idea. But the concept might have proved a convenient pretext for other players, though what exactly they may have been thinking is hard to fathom.The fact remains that the Libyan operation, for whatever reason it was launched, will lead to a humanitarian catastrophe if it is allowed to drag on. You can’t start a war without aiming to win it any more than you can start a humanitarian crisis in order to prevent it. But it is frightening to think that some people might think themselves smart enough to try.
Yet more worrisome still is what may follow: that when the defects of this genius strategy become undeniable its architects will attempt to patch it by designing little ground interventions in penny-packets. They will draw tidy lines on a map, like ‘sanctuaries’ and ‘safe zones’. They may task “limited protective missions” and finally commando missions to swat away the worst nettles, all without reference to the politically incorrect word “victory”.
Let’s hope this doesn’t happen. The worst thing possible is for me to write some new post at Belmont Club two months from now and find that I can quote myself again.
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pajamasmedia.com
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. longjack
Sorry in advance for the long post. Mr. Fernandez please feel free to delete it if it is too long.
This is an interview Spiegel did in Bengazi a couple of days ago. I didn’t see an English version so I did the translation since it seemed very Apropos to the thread.
Kind of an interesting read, I thought, it names names and I liked the ‘no beat around the bush’ style of the interviewer.
Spiegel.de / Die flüchtige Macht der Rebellen
22.03.2011
Libya
The Fleeting Power of the Rebels
By Jonathan Stock, Bengasi
They want to take power in Libya – however the government of the rebels in Bengasi is a fleeting band: The boss keeps himself hidden, there aren’t any group meetings, even many names are kept secret. In this interview, the secretary-general explains how his people want to organize the future of the country.
The new government of the rebels, the national transitional council, consists of 31 members, of which only 13 are known. They have never met together. Gaddafi’s henchmen have placed a bounty on the head of the council’s chairman, Mustafa Abdul Dschalil.
For days now, journalists have been trying to find somebody in Bengasi who can tell them what is actually going on, who will bring the city under control and who is responsible for the ground troops at the front. No one can be reached by telephone, and e-mails are not answered any more. In the courthouse, where at least some self-appointed press spokesmen had wandered about, you don’t see them around any more.
A two story building directly on the sea looks more promising, however. A newly painted yellow facade, a big garden, six men with machine guns in the courtyard, the wrought iron gate is locked. No sign is on the door. It was a former consulate, say the neighbors. Is this the, as yet, unknown seat of the National Transition government?
On the first floor: large leather chairs, a big window with a view of the sea, a flag of the new Libya. Gold fountain pens and a silver jet fighter are on the desk. Coffee in small, golden porcelain cups is passed around. Messengers come in with papers that need signing. In front of the desk sits Ahmed al-Senussi in a pin-striped suit.
Behind the desk sits a very busy man, particularly on the telephone. He is Abdul Karim Basama. He was in prison eight years, five of those in solitary confinement. He got out a year ago. He was accused of conspiracy against the government. Now he is secretary-general of the National Transition Council and the first self-appointed official that we have actually seen working in the city.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Herr Basama, where are we?
Basama: This building is the seat of the National Transition Council. From here we will build our new government. From nothing. 42 Years of dictatorship and revolution have left no working administration. We have to take care of everything, power, water, banks, security. We do our best. As secretary-general, I coordinate the council. But as Gaddafi’s troops withdrew, they destroyed a power plant and water lines, so I also have to take care of that.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: We have been trying for three days to reach someone on the council in the city. Where are they all?
Basama: I’m here. Abdul Hakim Ghoga, our spokesperson, and Ahmed al-Senussiare are also here. Senussi is member of the council, he was responsible for political prisoners but is now kind of a like a Secretary of the Interior. Many of the council are in the Green Mountains (mountains east of Bengasi, ed.). And Mustafa Abdul Dschalil, the head of the council, is in Tobruk now.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why are so many members of the transition council in the Green Mountains, is that a safer spot?
Basama: You could say that.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is the situation in the city dangerous?
Basama: No, the situation is secure. Two days ago the Gaddafi troops invaded. They reached the suburbs. But our resistance and the very precise air strikes by the French held them. They had contacted us ahead of time so that there wouldn’t be any civilian victims. They did a perfect job, we are very grateful to them. Almost 59 tanks and 57 armored vehicles were destroyed. There would have been a massacre otherwise. I hope that the Americans intervene now in Misurata. The civilian population is being shelled by tanks and heavy artillery there. The people there are asking for help. The Americans must intervene with air strikes there. That is the only way to deal with these maniacs.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Who on your side is in contact with the French, British or American Army command?
Basama: That‘s General Abd al-Fattah Junis, der Chief of Staff . He was appointed that by the National Transition Council, but he is not a member of the council.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: There are rumors that Abd al-Fattah Junis, for many years the right hand man for Gaddafi, has changed sides again and has been reactivated by Gadaffi, is that true?
Basama: No.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is Omar Hariri not considered leader of the Army any more?
Basama: Omar Hariri is a member of the transition council. He is like a Minister of defense and is ranked above Abd al-Fattah Junes. We don’t use titles like Minister of Defense though. Ahmed al-Senussi beside me here is member of the council, he is responsible for security like a Secretary of the Interior. But there are no titles, the council appoints people who are responsible for certain things. Ali al-Issawi, for example, is responsible for foreign issues.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Chalifa Belkasim Haftar was also seen on the road between Bengasi and Adschdabija Monday. The old Gaddafi General who has returned from the US seems to be a very popular figure in the Army now. Is he responsible for the ground troops? Should he win the war against Tripoli?
Basama: Yes.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: How do you communicate with each other when a bounty has been placed on the head of your chairman?
Basama: We phone each other a lot and we met together last week. We called off a meeting the day before yesterday due to the tense security situation. There was a meeting in Tobruk on Tuesday.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Did all members meet in Tobruk?
Basama: No, just a few.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Who then?
Basama: I believe, Fatih Elbaaja in Tobruk and, of course, chairman Mustafa Abdul Dschalil and our UN envoy.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Who are all the members of the council?
Basama: I can’t tell you that.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why not?
Basama: For security reasons.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Are there police in the city?
Basama: No, just traffic police.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: What are the regular police doing? They’ve officially joined the revolution. Don’t they want to work anymore?
Basama: Yes, they want to work again. They are asking for guarantees, though.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: What guarantees?
Basama: Security guarantees. They are afraid of the rebels. When the military situation improves we can do that. The priority is at the front. I believe, though, security in the city is quite good.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Many in the city don’t see it like that. There are shootings every night. Early Monday morning two groups were fighting each other in front of the Al-Noran-Hotel where many journalists stay.
Basama: Yes, there are those problems. People are celebrating. Those are celebratory shots.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: No, they were shooting at each other. Between the Al-Wahad hotel and the Al-Noran hotel a group of journalists had to take cover because they were being shot at. At the same time, a group of rebels and Gaddafi supporters fought each other. Flak was present, we heard bombs going off.
Basama: Those are people from the old Gaddafi Regime. When they resist arrest it leads to such battles.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: The Ligan Thauria, the old Gaddafi revolutionary committee?
Basama: yes, The Ligan Thauria.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: What can you tell us about them?
Basama: Some of the Ligan Thauria tortured or killed under Gaddafi. If one of them is caught now, the young revolutionaries hear of it by talking amongst themselves and snatch him. We are trying to get that under control as fast as we can so we can send them to court.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Where are they being held?
Basama: Different places, secure places. There are accidents when they are discovered. You know what it’s like when it comes to hand-to-hand fighting here. It’s hard to get the people under control.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Are they killed?
Basama: Yes.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: How many Ligan Thauria are there?
Basama: There’s no exact number.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: About? Dozens or thousands?
Basama: Less than a hundred.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is it true that there is a published list with all the names of the Ligan Thauria, a death list of 7200 people?
Basama: There are many lists, you know.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Are these lists public or secret?
Basama: No. To be honest the transition council has little to do with that. These young people from the revolution make their own decisions. We can only try to coordinate it all. Some attorneys at the court are trying to ensure that no one is arrested without a legal process. That’s hard to control in a war situation, though.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Can anyone speak with the prisoners?
Silence.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: So, no one can speak with them.
Basama: it is possible, but… Excuse me, I’ll be back in ten minutes.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Okay.
He never came back.
The interview was led by Jonathan Stock
Nice to know the people we're bombing to put in power have a 7200 name death list. |
