IDC's Smartphone Growth and Share Changes Crystal Ball ...
Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2011 and 2015 Market Share and 2011-2015 CAGR
2011 2011 ¡¡ 2015 2011-2015
Operating System Units¹ Share ¡¡ Operating System Share CAGR
======= ======= ¡¡ ======= ==========
1. Android 178.8m 39.5% ¡¡ 1. Android 45.4% 23.8%
2. Symbian 94.6m 20.9% ¡¡ 2. WinPhone 20.9% 67.1%
3. iOS 71.1m 15.7% ¡¡ 3. iOS 15.3% 18.8%
4. BlackBerry 67.5m 14.9% ¡¡ 4. BlackBerry 13.7% 17.1%
5. WinPhone/WinMob 24.9m 5.5% ¡¡ 6. Symbian 0.2% -65.0%
6. Others 15.8m 3.5% ¡¡ 5. Others 4.6% 28.0%
------ ------ ¡¡ ------ ------
Total 452.7m 100.0% ¡¡ Total 100.0% 19.6%
·
¹ 2011 Units are calculated from IDC's share percentages x their calculated total units
I added a a calculated unit sell-in column to IDC's table and my reworked table lists the operating systems relative share by rank rather than alphabetically. IDC's original table can be viewed at the link below.
IDC's estimates for 2015 are every bit as much a WAG as an estimate. It is a given that Android will finish 2011 as the number 1 mobile OS and will continue to grow, but if Nokia had chosen Android as their 3rd pillar it would likely grow faster in 2012 to 2015 than without them. Nokia's WinPhone decision changes the game. If we indulge a willing suspension of disbelief and assume that IDC's 2015 estimates are reasonably accurate then Android's growth is held somewhat in check and WinPhone will become the fastest growing mobile operating system.
In 2011 Symbian will likely lose not only share but probably unit sell-in will be lower than in 2010, but IDC sees Symbian sell-in as reasonably healthy and Nokia could exit 2011 as the number 1 global provider of smartphones in unit terms. That will depend on what unannounced Symbian products Nokia launches between now and the end of Q3 that will ship in Q4.
>> IDC Forecasts Worldwide Smartphone Market to Grow by Nearly 50% in 2011
IDC Press Release
Framingham, Mass.
March 29, 2011
idc.com
The worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow 49.2% in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users turn in their feature phones for smartphones with more advanced features. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. Moreover, the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market.
"Overall market growth in 2010 was exceptional," said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Last year's high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010."
To capture the strong consumer demand for smartphones, manufacturers have unleashed a steady stream of new models and features over the past two years. The battle for mind and market share has also resulted in stiff competition among the smartphone operating systems.
"Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010," said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team. "For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."
Nokia's recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. "Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," added Llamas. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android." ###
This is how IDC viewed smartphone sell-in and share by vendor in 2010 ...
CY 2010 CY 2010 CY 2010 CY 2010 YoY
Vendor Units Share Units Share Growth
=========== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
Nokia 100.3m 33.1% 67.7m 39.0% 48.2%
Research In Motion 48.8m 16.1% 34.5m 19.9% 41.4%
Apple 47.5m 15.7% 25.1m 14.5% 89.2%
Samsung 23.0m 7.6% 5.5m 3.2% 318.2%
HTC 21.5m 7.1% 8.1m 4.7% 165.4%
Others 61.5m 20.3% 32.6m 18.8% 88.7%
------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total 302.6m 100.0% 173.5m 100.0% 74.4%
· ·
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, January 27, 2011.
Note: Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors
In addition to Nokia Symbian smartphones additional Symbian MOAP(S) products were sold in Japan
- Eric - |
