The Residential Real Estate Post-Crash Index-Moderated Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Post-Crash Index-Moderated

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To: gregor_us who wrote (14344)	3/29/2011 1:33:48 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	6 Recommendations Read Replies (5) of 119360

Thanks! Yes - I called the double dip in housing correctly - so far so good. And yes, I correctly called both the bubble / bust - and the weak recovery. Thanks for remembering! I agree that energy prices are a significant risk - and I've been highlighting that risk. There are several other key risks too: Europe, an oil supply shock, state and local government issues are some. Plus we still have a long ways to go before the housing market returns to normal ... As far as definitions, I've always used 10% decline in real GDP for a depression (a pretty common definition). I've pointed out that others use different definitions, and by some of those the severe recession looked very much like a depression. But by the common definition, no. It takes a long time to recover from a credit bubble ... I wish we could have stopped it back in 2003 or 2004 when it was obvious to everyone on the original housing bust thread.

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