COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF Message Board

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Technology Stocks : COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF

COMS 0.00130

-18.8%

Nov 7 11:47 AM EST

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To: Valentino who wrote (9227)	11/14/1997 1:14:00 PM
From: Dee Jay	Read Replies (2) of 22053

wrong on all counts. Logic tells us that ISPs, for example, would be influenced only by demand from their users, not unsold modems in sales channels. Distributors would not be excited by the prospect of having to unload huge amounts of merchandise that isn't moving; the reverse would be true, IMHO. Once it became apparent that the stuff wasn't moving sales incentives could have been brought into play - and they were. I remember remarking that $50 rebates were being offered and that seemed early in the game. But even with rebates the stock did not move while 33K modems continued selling well (they're upgradeable, remember, and without controversy). That's when the gamble got real scary - reportable sales slowing to a trickle. If that news had gotten out in a timely fashion (how about 5 months ago) the war would seem to have ended with either no one the victor or Rockwell/Lucent declared victors by the mere fact that they were ramping up while the competitive technology was faltering. That would have been huge news and those among you who were chortling over the X2 purported lead might have had different thoughts at the time. And the stock price would have fallen markedly thus endangering the completion of the merger. However this all ends retrospectively it will have seemed to be close to a debacle. I'm afraid it's not over yet, at least insofar as the ramifications are concerned. Greenberg and the Times were right on to blow the whistle here. The good news is that when the standard is finally set all of those upgradeable 33s will represent a huge income stream that flows directly to COMS bottom line, more or less, since retailers and distributors are out of the upgrade loop. Dee Jay

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