Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 161.85

-1.5%

10:24 AM EST

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3481)	11/14/1997 2:08:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) of 10921

Justa, 1. Forecasts: Agreed, most companies in sector have expressed surprise about strength of demand (recently) for current and next quarters. CYMI gives firm guidance for next 2 quarters only. This annoys the analysts who have to do some work to estimate another 6 quarters. 2. 2000 and out forecasts: The brokers do state assumptions (their best guess at what's most probable to happen). So I'd be somewhat charitable and call it informed speculation. I still agree with your point - it's subject to significant change. 3. Holding period: I believe most of us invest in this sector because we believe its equipment is an essential ingredient for progress in both the developed and less developed countries in this galaxy if not the universe. :-) I believe that status will be maintained indefinitely and certainly for more than 3 years. I further believe that the leading edge companies are "on sale" again. Bob G. 4. 2000 dip for CYMI. I believe one of the posts on this thread indicated that ML believes that DUV steppers sold now will be used for R&D, Pilot lines, etc. ...where etc. doesn't include production. ML believes that it will take more than a year before the bugs are worked out, the processes developed and optimized, before volume orders begin for production fab lines. I think ML is out to lunch. If anything, DUV will become mainstream at least 1 year faster than the SIA roadmap not 1 year later. e.g. this morning's news release about the TI-ACER(??) fab delay: deferring about 450M of capital equipment for a new fab; last paragraph stated they were spending $400M to modernize an existing fab. IMO, producers of leading edge chips, that choose to remain leading edge (another option is to make potato chips) must upgrade to DUV. It will happen, and I believe, faster than is currently publicly estimated by the various analysts. I could be wrong. Everyone else may be right. It wouldn't be the first time. Ian.

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