hello cb, as you dispense legal take, i deal out macro sense, and re
<<35% C fund, common stock. 30% S fund, small cap stock. 30% I fund, international stock. 5% in T bills>>
i figure ...
- common stock may prove as unrewarding in the next 10 years as in the past 10, due to debt-deflation overcoming fiat money inflation, generally higher taxations, worse biz conditions, and basically continuing rapaciousness per wall street equity culture
- small cap should prove very vulnerable, as they would be fooled by the low interest rate environment, tempting them into never never land even as paucity of biz push them to gamble, and be surprised
- international stocks - depends on whether the companies operate under demo-socialism or genuine free market capitalism, and whether managers agile enough to modulate hyper-inflation stance and re-calibrate diaper-deflation bias on timely basis
- given low cost of money, equity fund managers are generally just guessing and wagering as valuation models give false signals, and with all the to and fro, zig n zag, net zero should be the expected best case outcome per past 10-years experience
iow, the gaming is gamed against most, most shall fall so that a few may rise
- i do not need to comment on the astuteness of t bills - might as well just bury the cash in a dry locale or, more straightforward, give the funds away
- for goodness sake, think about what you are doing, and should instead be trying to do.
sincerely, tj |
