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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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From: Jimfutu28	4/5/2011 12:19:57 AM
	of 12410

The Softs Review For the week of April 4th, 2011 Pitguru Jurgens H. Bauer has been back the Soft market this week to analyze the market for us. Take note the news for your trading week! The all important first look at plantings provided cotton with support as the figure was not as high as anticipated. Exports for the new crop (Dec) reacted in solid fashion, so the tone is set for the new crop to advance. As for May and July? They appeared to be carried along after the report, yet I expect that they will soften relative to the new crop as rolling continues, therefore I look for spreads to narrow considerably as time passes. Sugar prices advanced again late last week, SBK still trading the range between 2830 and 2580. Expect the upside of that to be probed for what it’s worth. I am standing aside at present, with no horse in that race. Cocoa will react to whatever news comes out of the Ivory Coast. It looks like the situation there is coming to a head. Admittedly, I had been nervous about the option expiration Friday and the potential set up for a series of option plays, but it doesn't look as if anything unusual happened. If anything, I lean towards seeing efforts failing to return above 3200. I am intrigued by coffee. Two basic camps are forming with the bullish camp looking for the 260 area to provide support for an upside breakout of a bullish wedge pattern. I have pitched my tent in the bearish camp, with the head and shoulders top formation still suggesting a sharp move down. In either case, the answer may come this week heading towards option expiry on Friday. Take your pick. I do remain bullish fundamentally towards coffee and the soft markets in general (long term) as I expect the dollar to weaken. Our budget problems seem as if politicians are "bailing the Titanic with a teaspoon". pitguru.com

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