UPDATE: Fed's Bernanke Downplays Inflation Fears
By Luca Di Leo and Michael S. Derby
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
STONE MOUNTAIN, Georgia (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Monday downplayed inflation fears which led some of colleagues to recently warn tighter monetary policy may be needed to keep prices in check.
Bernanke said the rise in global commodity prices is likely to be temporary and shouldn't translate into a broader inflation problem. However, the Fed chief was quick to add that if his prediction is wrong and inflation begins to mark strong gains, the central bank would respond.
"I think the increase in inflation will be transitory," Bernanke said when asked about recent comments from Walmart (WMT) that input costs will make their way into consumer prices. He attributed the strong gain in global energy and food prices to supply and demand conditions, adding he reckons these prices "will eventually stabilize."
The Fed chief's remarks, which came in response to audience questions he faced at a conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, indicate he doesn't share the inflation concerns aired by a vocal minority of central bank officials over the past few weeks.
Bernanke's colleagues have been frequent commentators on the state of the economy over recent days, and their statements on the monetary policy outlook have left markets somewhat uncertain about the course the Fed is likely to take.
The loudest voices over recent weeks have come from the Fed's hawkish wing, or from those who tend to worry about inflation. Officials like Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher have led many in markets to believe the central bank is moving closer to some sort of monetary policy tightening in order to keep a lid on prices.
Bernanke said that while near-term inflation expectations have risen due to higher food and gasoline prices, measures that look a couple of years out are not of concern yet.
Some officials have suggested the central bank may have to raise interest rates aggressively late this year to prevent prices from rising, even if unemployment remains high. The immediate issue is the future of the Fed's $600 billion bond buying program, which is slated to end in the summer. A recovering economy, rising commodity prices and increased worry about the inflation outlook are causing many to question the continued need for the Fed's stimulative program.
But in the eyes of many economists, the hawks' strength is not as great as it seems. On Friday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, spoke and indicated in fairly strong terms the bond buying program will run its course--and warned against raising rates too soon. "We are still very far away from achieving our dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability," Dudley said. "Faster progress toward these objectives would be very welcome."
Bernanke pointed to continued weakness in the economy, saying the housing sector is one reason why the recovery is not stronger. He said the Fed expects the high rate of foreclosures to continue, and noted this will hurt consumer wealth and confidence.
The economy continued to add jobs at a strong pace in March, taking the unemployment rate down to its lowest level in two years. However, Americans' incomes have barely risen over the past year, suggesting consumer spending, already constrained by thrift and tight credit, will remain subdued. With housing still in the doldrums and U.S. exports threatened by increasing risks to the global economy, notably high oil prices, the U.S. economy may still need the Fed's support for some time.
-By Luca Di Leo and Michael S. Derby; Dow Jones Newswires, 202 862 6682; luca.dileo@dowjones.com |
