i figure
- probable interim blowoff
- as the possible interim breakout might be stillborn by end of qe2 not immediately followed on by start of qe3 (or at least hiccup due to debate or make-belief debate amongst the fed members and politicians and the 'people' ... on wall street
- should the breakout be extended, i still have unencumbered gdx, paas, remaining paper gold, aussie hotsie totsie, and for exchange to paper at higher levels, and my encumbered abx, fcx, some paas and gdx would be called away
- do realize i was high pm in all manifestations - i like pm, especially the underlying paper metals, because at times i hold 10-50x in pm than i would in any single-name paper construct of operating companies
- i used to like currencies, when they were absolutely sure wagers, but they no longer are absolutely sure wagers
- am convinced that gold shall revisit 1400 before the 6 months is out
- in any case i have physical comfort
- so risks are limited
- besides, cannot buy later unless we sell some
- especially in the case of platinum, which behaves differently to gold
- silver is just nuts and needs an interim blowoff
- we must either premise that the economic recovery is a sham, or we must suppose fiat money inflation shall stop
- as the market debates, wobbles are inevitable. harsher the debate, bigger the wobble. we must remain enthusiastic for big wobbles, that which shakes coins out of the many
- we are in a 7-15 years game, and most must fall so that a few may rise
- i have not seen anything that shakes my conviction re fundamental premise, that be happy birthing inflation of the eastern kingdom, dying anguish deflation of the western empire, equalization of respective middle classes, teotwawki dawn, etc etc
- the only safe wager is gold and solid platinum, and by proxy, silver and palladium, those which shall rise whichever way events work out or not
- the only good metal is physical metal
- but to embrace physical one must realize paper profit, by selling when others are buying, and picking up as and when others fall, and by cloud atm extractions, over and again, thrice more and then repeat
- else the game is not self-sustaining |
