Douglas-
>>So I believe the more accurate FC market indicator would be an index of FC companies which stand to profit from OEMs etc. with the server/storage/others. The 7 Hi Fibre companies I would consider are:
ANCR (Switch), BXH (IPO & Storage), CPCI (Storage), EMLX (Adapters & Hubs), INPH (Adapters), MTIC (Storage), & MYLX (Storage).<<
Sounds like we agree, there is no way to judge the incremental impact of FC revenues for the big guys relative to their market valuations- at least at this time.. I see the index as a sort of a proxy for the micro cap/ small cap emerging growth companies that will benefit from FC deployment. We can update the Sector Index as new IPO's happen and other companies increase FC sales. I have been looking for a test to use in determining who to include in a preliminary index, and have reveiwed the compainies you suggested as HI Fibre candidates. I tested for current period revenues as a way to eliminate potential vapor product announcements, and to try to get some potential correlation in the group. Nothing fantastic, but this is what i found ( or guessed at).
Recent Quarter Results
Company Quarter Revenue Est % FC Net FC Rev
ANCR 9/97 3424 100% 3424 A (Pure Play, all revenue now derived from FC)
BXH 9/97 18100 5% 905 E (Introduced Fibre Box FC storage system during quarter)
CPCI 9/97 8668 25% 2167 E (Solid growth from industrys first FC Raid product)
EMLX 9/97 15007 33% 4952 A (FC rev more than 1/3 total, FC now drives results)
INPH 9/97 13611 5% 681 A (Storage prod rev is SCSI and FC. Also LAN, WAN products.)
MYLX 9/97 29400 0% 0 E (First product FC RAID to SCSI controller avaliable Q1 98).
MTIC 10/97 4100 0% 0 E (First FC prod introduced oct 97)).
A = Actual % FC Rev from Company, 10Q, or PR Release.
E = Guess based on comments from company, prod intro date, etc.
The above would indicate:
ANCR, BXH, CPCI, EMLX, INPH
Let me know what you think, suggestions appreciated.
The software i am using is AIQ Trading Expert.
As for "shoot the messenger", that's why we should call it the Nordgren Fibre Channel Emerging Growth Index <g>.
Regards,
Neil |
