Maybe I am too old to know these things, but I witnessed many a bull market in my day, including the first major bull market in gold of our era, and then the rebound to $500+ and the many soybean bull markets, and they all end;
I dont know (nor does it matter) where this rally ends, but let's say everyone here is correct, that it is (different this time)
consider this,
everything that we all know which is going on, which is carrying commodities of every stripe to new all time highs, is all known,
what hasnt been considered?, so, if it is all known, (and I am aware that in bull markets there are always surprises to the upside) but,
if this is everything that everyone says, then,
what if,
this is a wave 3, of a a grand major super-cycle,
and wave 3 has not ended yet,
then, wave 4, when it occurs, can carry all the way back to the beginning of wave 3, and if that occurs, within the grand wave structure, then prepare to use tight stops and resist the urge to buy back in, until wave 4 is over,
if anyone doubts this theory, then I suggest they take a look at US real estate prices as an example, and imagine if someone told you 6 years ago, that we were in a wave 3 of a grand super cycle, which when it ends will lead to a major bear market, within the overall bull trend, which will take us back to 1991 levels and wipe out much of over leveraged americans, and after that devastating event occurs, the grand supercycle wave 5 will begin, and take us to new all time highs,
well, someone told me that in 2005, and I didnt believe it, but, you can try to find it yourselves, as I read in in an issue of Stocks and Commodities magazine on an airplane, in August of 2004, and I sold my entire portfolio of real estate within 12 months,
if this is truly a wave 3, and looking at gold only,
the 1980's bull market, may have been wave 1, and we may very well be in wave 3,
unless everyone here thinks its wave 5, at which point a blowoff is in order, similar to oil a few years ago at 150.
seriously people, this isnt to argue, it is to arm you |
