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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 327.01+2.5%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST
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To: akidron who wrote (11080)11/14/1997 5:35:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Akidron,
I agree with all you said 100%. If AMAT does beat the estimates, I cannot possibly see it remaining in the 30's for too long. The anticipated growth over the next 2-3 years should prove phenomenal and is not currently priced in the stocks IMHO. Using #'s of $1.33, $2.15, and $3.25 for FY's 97, 98 and 99, we will see an eps gain of 62% for FY97 to FY98 and 51% for FY98 to FY99. Please keep in mind that these numbers can be beat and I believe will be bested. How many companies will see this kind of growth going forward?? Not many. Which is why once the Street is over its panic attack it will come to this realizization and once again give AMAT the valuation it deserves. Remember too that AMAT is the leader in an oligopoly- the barriers to entry are ENORMOUS. This in and of itself warrants a higher p/e in my estimation. To me, the argument that cap exp will slow down is ludicrous too. After a company invests Billions of dollars to position itself among the tops in its industry, it will slow spending and fall behind losing all it has built over many years, possibly decades?!?! These companies really do not have a choice. If they don't make the chips, someone else will. And I like akidron's analogy to a steel mill. These plants are too important not to invest in. The Third World countries of the 21st Century will be defined as those without a technology infrastructure. Countries are slowly coming to this realization which is why we are seeing more and more tax breaks for companies building fabs.

regards,

Brian
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