Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 196.81

-4.9%

Dec 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: jhild who wrote (23539)	11/14/1997 10:53:00 PM
From: satish kamat	Read Replies (1) of 61433

I think we may be mixing the issues. What really counts finally is (as you pointed out) the number of users and therfore the number of access number and therefore the ports. I think Moe was saying the transition is non issue because ASND through is GET FLEX program took away thunder from the transition (They gave away the upgrades for all existing 28k thereby protecting there existing base). The way to command premium in technology game is to be at the top of the food chain. From NIC, modems, LAN, remote acess ports, access concentrator, to WAN with FR/ATM is the food chain. COMS made money in NIC and LAN. USRX in modems. Upto now ASND in remote access. But all this have become commodity business. CSCO smartly played the one-stop infrastructure game. Then of course as they realized that food chain was moving to WAN they paid through thier nose for stratacom. It is that decison that is allowing CSCO to create some problems for ASND now. That will soon change as ASND brings down the prices of remote as well as WAN. Short term this is going to cause margin problems with ASND as WAN market has not taken off fully. But this will create more problems for CSCO as they are squeezed at lower as well as upper end of food chain because of this lowering prices. Look for CSCO stock to go down as institutions lock in their profits after new year (tax delay) before CSCO start talking about weakness and margin squeez. Chambers already pointed to that in last conf. call. And just look at AMAT (56 to 21) to see what happens when institutions decide to dump a stock systematically. That's why CSCO won't go down before end of the year.

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