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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis
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To: ggersh who wrote (37664)4/26/2011 9:32:09 PM
From: John  Read Replies (1) of 71463
 
I went back and reanalyzed the data using semi-annual periods to compare the Jan-Jun windows to the Jul-Dec windows.

One aspect that jumps out is the absence of any four consecutive down-day periods so far this year. There has never been a single period (Jan - Jun) from 1929 until 2010 without at least one such event. Not one!

With barely two months left in the Jan-Jun 2011 period, the raw data suggest that there is a 100 percent chance of at least once such event during the next two months, but the Poisson distribution tempers that to a 97.77% probability. Will this be a very rare year where a four consecutive down-day event does not occur at least once in the Jan-Jun window? If so, it will be the only occurrence during the past 83 years.

On the flip side, there is an 86.90% probability of at least one more four consecutive up-day event through June 30 (two such events have already occurred this year).


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