the continuing conversation
From: Jay
To: Andrew
Sent: Fri, April 29, 2011 1:32:13 PM
Subject: Re: Top of silver
:0) i enthusiastic bat back the ball, and throw the racket over the net, along with shoes, socks and boxer shorts.
(i) first i, tobagojack, must establish my credentials as bear on team usa, master of universe trader, gold bug, platinum worm, and silver-backed monkey, and so i search back time-stamped log to earliest muttering re ... gold ... internet ... and how to be in alignment with the force ... for i, tobagojack, am the speculator on the silicon investor forum
relevant samplers:
Message 11919728 circa november 1999 when i was doing internet as well as shorting puts on gold (newmont mining)
Message 12424137 circa december 1999 when i started to edge out of i-net / e-slash com
Message 15421566 circa 2001 charting out the script going forward
Message 25916530 links from my 2001 - 2009 ruminations on what actually would matter to gold
Message 24743545 link to a video i made in 2002 looking at 2003 and beyond, scripting out what must be
Message 18420730 circa 2003 leading the charge of gold bulls without reservation and for the right reasons
Message 21941081 circa december 2005 script for gold
(ii) and i can document my (a) more than timely exit from the internet bubble, and (b) other [high conviction] dollar trades, (c) even some in aussie hotsie totsie micro shares that take weeks to buy and much more importantly, to sell Subject 53628 without disturbing the force
(iii) and before getting on to the main discussion point,
(a) most recent allocation Message 27302053
(b) most recent trades Message 27302053
(c) most recent full-on campaign Message 26400403 (one campaign i started post-lehman crisis)
(iv) attached be
(a) my all-time favorite book mises.org and the script i believe we are on - first read in january of 2004 while on island of bora bora achamchen.com
(b) photos of how i keep permanent and mineralized score
(c) the charts i keep at top of brain and front of mind
(d) some readings i keep reading, iow highly recommended
(v) finally, re the silver "bubble top"
i figure,
for it is sad for me to think that the two hunt brothers plus a few saudi arabians did get silver to the once rare level of 50, and now, with a few dozen sovereign funds, still the saudis and all their jasmine fellow travelers, and 2.8 billion chin_dians, plus the 18,000 hedge funds and we would only manage silver top at 50?
does a "top" sound reasonable?
now, let me just note, yes, at some junction silver, along with gold, may well correct 40%, but that would be before the metals sincerely ramp.
cheers, jay
From: Andrew
To: Jay
Sent: Fri, April 29, 2011 9:06:51 AM
Subject: FW: Top of silver
Jay
Over the net back to you
Andrew
Consultant Advisor
From: Karl
Sent: Friday, 29 April 2011 11:04 AM
To: Andrew
Subject: RE: Top of silver
Ok I’ll return.
I agree with Jay’s views on inflation in the East and let’s call it stagnation in the West, and as you would know we as a fund have been one of the very few that have been bullish aussie and euro and bearish dollar and gbp for a long time. America is crap I’ve been on that trade since 2007 but the point Jay is missing is that silver has turned into a mania.
When people are bid 3% over for 1 year calls v’s puts in silver after it has more than doubled in the space of 6 months... the charts I’ve sent speak for themselves.
Be short the dollar sure but what’s better from these levels? 5% carry in aussie or holding costs in silver?
This chart is silver in A$ terms. Be brave to be long that here.
From: Andrew
Sent: Friday, 29 April 2011 7:28 AM
To: Karl Mayer
Subject: FW: Top of silver
Back over the net to you
Andrew
Consultant Advisor
From: Jay
Sent: Thursday, 28 April 2011 4:05 PM
To: Andrew
Cc: Michael
Subject: Re: Top of silver
hi andrew, all depends on time horizon.
hedge fund managers are good money aggregators, mostly, and poor macro trend discerners, due to emphasis of training over education, learning over reflection, watching own naval as opposed to ... but i digress :0)
true bull markets reward the truly faithful, even as we trade in/out, zig then zag, to and fro, much as we might with some girlfriends, by long covered calls and short naked puts, to fully harness the wave-like energy of the force as we try to keep in tune with the force.
may your mates be properly rewarded for calling the top on silver even as we cannot possibly know what the top for gold would, should, or could be.
as a matter of disclosure,
- i off loaded my paper silver, paper platinum, and 1/3 of paper gold,
- even as i continue to keep faith by physical gold and platinum,
- am out of vast majority of gdx, have no short put exposure, and what longs i have are callable at 62, and
- i wait to re-enter paas and sil, first by shorting puts
i am uncomfortable about qe2 ends and qe3 not to start until the blood curdling screaming starts, in earnest.
to say silver has topped is like ... well like saying dollar has bottomed, but i repeat myself.
to piss against silver shall turn out to be just like pissing uphill and against the wind, by group action, i say, so that i am not repeating myself.
if one believes the dollar has bottomed, then one should go short usa equities, i suppose, because the economy is surely going nowhere and doing so in no hurry. but then one should go short usa equities anyway whether or not silver has topped. |
