Short Attack
This note is to heighten everyones
awareness to the possibility
of a SHORT ATTACK on BIOX.
Yes - it is always bad to cry "WOLF" and frighten
folks, when in fact, there is no "WOLF";
but sometimes, it is better to practice THE DRILL
in case the attack comes -
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The current short #'s are:
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Oct - 265,000
Sept - 166,000
Aug - 46,000
July - 75,000
June - 75,000
You can track these numbers at this site:
viwes.com
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TA Summary
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I won't defend the following, but I think
at this "point of time" of BIOXs' price
cycle, the following SUPPORT LEVELS
have been established.
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Price Support Levels
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36.00 - 35.00
33.00 - 32.00
28.50
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The Hope
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Some folks (not on this thread) are honestly hoping
that BIOX falls thru $32.00 a share because
the next support price level is
around the $28.50 vicinity.
What adds to the shorts arsenal is the market
in general e.g. problems in Asia.
Stated another way,if the market falls
below 7,400 most stocks will go
down.
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What you can do
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Most importantly, make sure that you can ABSORB
an attack to the $28.00 level.
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The Comeback
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Then - note and get ready for the following:
(1) Mgmt. owns 30% of this company.
i.e. those shares are tied up
(2) There are only 11+ million shares out there.
(3) BIOX's 4th qtr. will
(a) exceed expectations - there are none
(b) put it on EVERYONE'S RADAR SCREENS.
i.e. the money managers
As for the 4th qtr. - its a done deal ....
+ Synvisc Sell-In to AHP
+ $1,000,000 license payment to BIOX from AHP
(If you like to read numbers, please see my
recent post about 4th qtr E.P.S - and adjust
to your own thoughts)
(4) After 4th qtr earnings come out -
I say, no less than 3 brokerage
houses will begin to comment on the stock
and give their estimate for 1998 e.p.s.
(5) Look at Friday - volume was VERY LOW. To me this
is a VERY, VERY BULLISH SIGNAL.
i.e. NOBODY IS LEAVING THE TABLE
The 200,000 shares shorted since August have got
to be feeling just a little sicky in their stomach.
And I say this ... just based on Friday's volume.
(6) Hylaform probably gets approved by 12/31.
Let's say December 20th ....
(7) Collagen will pay a fee for USA Hylaform.
Pick a number?
$4.0 mil.
$5.0 mil.
higher?
(8) BIOX's management actions.
If BIOX management buys just 200,000 shares at say
32.00 - there is NOTHING LEFT FOR THE SHORTS
TO COVER WITH.
Why? There will be no meaningful volume left.
Whoever the next buyer is they pay dearly.
Whether investor or short coverer.
Remember:BIOX is sitting on $20.0 mil.
in cash RIGHT NOW.
(9) Any short attack would have to end once 4th qtr.
earnings are announced.
-Or-
If BIOX mgt. pre-announced 4th Qtr. Revenues as an
FYI. (which some companies do).
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Apologies in Advance
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Well, that's my 2 cents.
I hope I have not offended anyone.
Quite the opposite, I hope this has helped.
So that you understand my headset,
there are a bunch of nice folks on
the CYMI thread.
Even now, after the event,
they are still SHELL-SHOCKED
from the SHORT ATTACK
that hit CYMI.
Let's not get blind-sided.
We're smarter than that.
Regards,
John |
