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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 153.97-5.6%3:27 PM EST
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To: FJB who wrote (3490)11/15/1997 3:51:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Bob: Please don't go to any trouble to look for them. I think I have the reports you are referring to in your post in my files. However, I know these numbers are updated every so often (I don't know how often) and I was wondering if there had been any more recent surveys that you may have had someplace.

I was also curious as to the various categories of equipment they survey and what their accuracy has been over the years.For example, are there two separate categories for DUV tools and eximer laser projections?

Here is why I ask. CYMI IR tells me that the July Dataquest DUV tool estimates for 1997 were 307 tools and I note that CYMI shipments of DUV lasers has been about 321 thus far 1997. If we assume 40% growth per the NYT article, we have 9% growth next quarter in tools (1.09 x 126 3rd quarter lasers = 137) so we get 137 lasers for the 4th quarter or 458 CYMI DUV lasers for 1997 total. Assuming CYMI has 80% market, if we multiply 458 x 1.20 = we get a 1997 estimated total market of 550 laser units. So using Dataquest estimates alone (assumption warning!) (I would love to have actual the DUV tool shipments of Nikon, SVGI, Canon and ASMLF for 1997 thus far), there would appear to be a current pipeline ramp-up ratio of 1.80 lasers per 1 DUV tool produced based upon the above assumptions.

This thinking does not lead to any conclusions at this point but I post it FWIW.

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