Hi Matt and all,
I don't come out of lurkdom very often; but, I think this situation calls for it. I Also thought you guys might be interested in some new thoughts, since the thread seems to have gotten into a rut.
I just thought I would express some of my thoughts and opinions. That is all this is, my own thoughts and opinions, nothing else.
First of all, if you look at the entire previous week on 15 minute intervals such as shown at this URL,
dljdirect.com
you will notice that there was a distinct change in both the price
pattern and the volume pattern beginning on Wed morning as compared to
Mon and Tue of last week. In the last 3 days of last week the total
volume was 1,133,000 shares (about 5% of total shares and maybe 25% of
free trading shares). I do you think it is possible that us small
individual traders/investors did this in anticipation of our high expectations being fulfilled? I don't think so. I think most of us are long term investors rather than traders and most of the smaller individuals already had all they wanted and/or could afford. I think it is much more likely that this was institutions because their feelers picked up something when the Press Release started being faxed around on Wed morning to obtain final approval from all the powers that be. I think this is the weak link in the security. Too many secretaries and other low level personnel have access to the fax machines and any other media that they might try to use. I think this is the point at which the big guys not only discover "when" but also learn "What" is in the press release. I really think that the institutions became aware of the contents of this press release on Wed morning and what we saw on Wed, Thur, and Fri was their reaction to the contents. This being the case, obviously they saw it as good news since all these shares traded at above 4 1/2. Look at the stock action before all previous press releases, I could be wrong, but I think without exception, the stock price action a day or two ahead of the press release has always predicted the direction that the stock moved after the press release. If this is true, and I tend to think that it is, then I do not see the stock price suddenly reversing on Mon morning. I do think the institutions may step aside for awhile Mon morning because it looks like a lot of scared individual investors will probably sell at market on Mon morning. After this initial drop back to about where it was (say about 4 to 4 1/2), I expect the institutions to come back in and at lease support the price there and maybe even bring it back to where it is or even higher. Why would they be willing to pay more than 4 1/2 based on probably advance knowledge of the contents of the press release and then sell for less after the official announcement. Don't make sense to me. I think the stock price action with this press release will follow the same pattern as in the past. In the past, the price action during the days preceding the press release has accurately predict the price action after the release.
The press release clearly says that the recovery process was performed
on two limited areas. The press release also says under the chart of
the assay results that the above samples represent only two limited
areas and these areas, in my opinion, are the same two limited areas
that the recovery process was performed on. How did they select these
areas? If you think about this, it had to be by randum chance in order to ensure that IPM could not have salted the selected areas. It would be impossible for IPM to have salted the entire grid to depth. Also IPM would not have known about the two locations until after Bateman had collected their chain of custody dirt. After this, IPM would of course have known since they could see where the digging/drilling took place. Once IPM knew where the samples had been collected, it seems logical to me that IPM would have collected their own samples from these areas so they would know what to expect. Also obviously, if they did this, IPM would have know from their fire assay that these two selected areas were going to be very low. I suspect that this was the source of some concern knowing that there would be those who would focus on the actual numbers rather than the procedure. Remember, at the AGM, IPM told us that they had a fire assay that was repeatable and reliable and it is this assay that gave us all those great numbers that we liked so well. Notice in the press release, it does not say that the lab invented a fire assay, developed a fire assay, designed a fire assay, or even fine tuned a fire assay. It says that the lab has "confirmed" a fire assay. I tend to think that this is the same fire assay that IPM has been using ever since before the AGM. In my opinion, IPM developed the fire assay, the lab only confirmed it.
The purpose of this third party verification was not to determine the
resource value of any grids. It was to verify the procedures to be used in determining the resource value of the grids. The actual numbers in this report are of no significance whatsoever and I think the institutions understand this. If you white out or otherwise remove the chart in the press release and reread the press release without the chart, you will get a completely different feel for
the significance. If the confirmed fire assay can work consistently and reliably on this low grade ore, don't you think it will do just as well on the high grade ore samples that we heard about at the AGM? Also if Bateman was able to recover gold and platinum from this low grade ore, don't you think that the procedure would also be able to recover gold and platinum from the high grade stuff? I think it even more significant that the fire assay and recovery procedure worked reliably on this low grade ore than if they had done all this on high grade samples. Think about it, what if these numbers had been great? People would be saying: "Well! these are only two samples, they just got lucky, it does not represent the average of the entire grid. Yeah, the fire assay works on this high grade ore but will it work on the low stuff. Most any fire assay will work on high grade ore, the trick is getting it to work reliably on the low grade stuff. Of course, an idiot can recover some gold and platinum from high grade ore but let them try to do it on the average and low grade stuff, it won't work. etc. etc. etc. etc." In some respects, it is better that the randomly selected samples were low grade. It was a better test of the validity of the fire assay and the recovery methods.
I for one am more concerned about finalizing a cost effective production recovery procedure, although, IPM has always held that this ore was easier to recover gold from than it was to fire assay. If that is true, then the hard part is solved.
I for one will be standing pat on monday morning. IPM can now begin assaying the backlog or samples to place the first grid in resource status. This should be completed in about 3 months and the stock should make a good move upwards at that time.
These are just my personal opinions for what it may be worth.
Best Regards to All,
Rick
Thought for the day: "You can measure your successes by the enemies you make."
No response necessary or wanted. Have fun, back to lurkdom. |
