Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (7047)	11/15/1997 5:49:00 PM
From: Dan Ross	Read Replies (1) of 9285

I just thought of something....a little bit late I'm afraid though.....if the U.S. kicks Saddam's butt, oil prices will surge. They have already gone up over $1 this week alone.....Being in Houston, I here about oil and gas all the time...... Anyways....the airline stocks get their rears kicked everytime there is a surge in oil prices as their biggest variable cost is fuel prices. Some have estimated that oil could surge up to $25 a barrel if Iraq messes with the U.S...... Why not short the airlines ??? AMR has a high P/E relative to Delta (9 vs 6). These are just multiples....I know....they are pretty much worthless but some insight.... As for AOL, I can't believe I didn't go with my gut feel Roger...I would have netted over 20 points!!!!! CRAP!!! Oh well, I will let the stock run up to 79 again and then short it..... If anyone wants a copy of an option calculator in Win '95, let me know....there is already data in it though from my Chrysler project.....I don't have time to evaluate the warrants....the basic part of the convertible bonds is that the stock has become less risky now to the shareholders as they can pay their expenses.......Whoever gave them a loan was crazy....those options will be worthless.... Dan Ross

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