Sergio, I don't think anyone here is doubtful about the performance or potential of LUNN, which is reflected in the excellent numbers in your post. It's the great unknown effect of the old TPG, which is 8 times bigger than the old LUNN. No matter how great LUNN's performance is, it can't make up entirely for the mediocre or even poor performance of TPG, if indeed the suspicions about TPG's troubles turn out to be accurate. That's why I bailed out at 14 3/8, with a 15% loss, rather than hang on til the first combined quarterly statements are out next April. I'm learning the hard way that protecting my capital is far more important than loyalty to any company, no matter how promising. The point is that there are better plays to be found, so a person doesn't need to take the level of risk involved with ATPX right now IMHO.
I'm just now reading O'Neil's book for the first time after hearing so much about it, and this is exactly the point that he makes: "letting your losses run is the most serious mistake made by almost all investors!" and "you need a specific defensive plan for cutting your losses quickly..." One final quote from O'Neil: "Remember, there are no good stocks--they are all bad...unless they go up." (William O'Neil, How To Make Money in Stocks, 1995, pgs. 93&96).
Not intending to cast rain on the ATPX parade. Just suggesting that an exit strategy seems to be crucial for protecting capital, and in hindsight, ATPX is providing an excellent example of why this is so.
Steve |
