"we could have a significant uptick in inflation because of ongoing wage pressures or world wide depression/recession"???? what have you been smoking...??? the last time I checked, world wide recession or depression BRINGS DOWN INTEREST RATES due to lack of demand...so the rates fall to equilibrium... remember, growth brings on inflation, depression, especially the world wide variety you mention brings on deflation, not inflation... this is whats happening in Japan, and it is uneconomic for the banks to lend, and because collateral value drops so precipitously, it is difficult to grant loans even when there is "some" unencumbered value left in the collateral... prices drop further because there are no buyers
I am very concerned about Japan and there banking crisis... and South Korea and its collapse and potential impact on Japanese/South Korean export wars... the banks there could be the big losers and when you see them shake and shiver, you'll see the international banking community pull back and then we are all impacted... Japanese year ends are mostly at the end of March so THAT is a very tenuous time for the markets, and leading up to then...Japanese firms will need to dress up their balance sheets for their year ends and that could cause the cross selling to step up in pace... listen to the shuttering, and the caution winds, don't think you can go out there and fight any storm because you have found the almight answer... respect the ocean and its power, much like the world financial markets, don't let YOUR beliefs stand in the way of prudently taking down your sails and keeping the bow into the wind... Scott Fisher and Rob Hall thought they were invincible against Everest and ignored the warning signs and threw their acknowledged caution to the wind... and their spirits are still to this day above the Hillary Step, trying to figure out what went wrong.... good luck... in the long run, 12-24 months and longer, this is a great investment, but my guess is that it will get awfully choppy and sloppy over the next 2-4 months... good luck |
