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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Cage Rattler who wrote (1604)	11/15/1997 7:21:00 PM
From: Staff	Read Replies (3) of 5676

Ted & GZ ... very very impressive! Your are much smarter than the average bears! ( and bulls:-)) As people who know me often hear me say.. Most would contend that if a flip is 50/50 and it comes up 8 times.. its has to go the other way. Your both make a very intelligent conclusion that it's 50/50 but.. each flip is independent and the nest flip does not remember what the last was. So... each flip indendent with still the same 50/50 chance. But... if you want to be technical, you cannot dismiss the wild card of it standing on edge. Though the odds are astronomical.. its still part or the equation . You have to look at all the possibilities to get the true answer. Look at the " is it half full or empty question... you assume we are focusing on the glass... but what it we look at the water instead... What I mean by this is that there is another answer to the question I posed...being... the glass is nether half full nor half empty... the glass is just to big:-) Ok... its picky ... it sounds silly I agree but.. I want to point out that we must take all factors into consideration in the equation and not dismiss any variable based on pre determined assumptions. Now as per a very very good point you pointed out and I waht to address: >>The reason the coin question is a different species of question than those about the markets are because the coin flip is not influenced by human emotion. Fear and greed are the emotions that drive and distort those perceptions. This is what is being measured on the charts. These factors have little to do with the flip of a coin.<<< Exactly! This is why conventional Gann theory fails in its * mathematical form* as its presented in books today. It does not take into consideration the human element. This is why conventional Gann charting proves inconsistent. It misses the the variance factor .. the human emotion element that drives the market . This is the astrological factor I mentioned that conventional wisdom dismisses in modern day Gann theory. Gann ... in his work ..did factor in the human element. He did this threw the use of astrology. This gets sort of la la land for most type A personalilties:-) but if you want to understand Gann then should be aware that this was part of his equation. It is ( as it was put to me) the DRIFT or sometimes reffered to as the SKEW in the equation! What I'm saying is that conventional Gann theory focuses on Ganns work strictly based on the mathematical end of his analysis. Gann did factor in the human element based on his astrological findings.Gann and others before him, determined that fixed elements elements as gravity, the movement of the stars and planets etc. not only effect what happens around us but are recurring and thus predictable and measurable. Just as gravity and the movement of the planets effect our surroundings( ocean tides, winter, summer , seasons etc.) it was a factor that he could measure and calculate within the mathematical framework of the time at hand. There is the key... Past pricing movements reflected not only the mathematical but incur the human emotion element in them as well. The more emotional the greater the movement yesterday was. But... how do you project tomorrow's movement not only mathematically but also factor into it what the human emotional element will before the nest day... Hmmmm..... by the elements... that's how! What books today do is not account in Ganns work is how he used the astrological knowledge to skew his moments of coincidence. The square as it was referred to in his original works. If I haven't lost you yet or you think I'm not loony tunes let me just say this. Full moons..tides... gravity... they effect people because they effect elements. Water for instance as per the tides... the human body is composed more of water than any other element. thus... you determine what effect the element water ... when and how...measure that wild card.. and the human factor of the equation turns from being intangible to a measurable thus predictable to a degree. I told you it's nuts. That is why you don't read about it in conventional Gann theory. Some books touch it but as lightly as possible.. Got to go ... my nurse says it's time for my medication:-) :-) told you it sounds crazy....

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