Intel Strategy for Achieving Wealth and Off Topic Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Intel Strategy for Achieving Wealth and Off Topic

INTC 40.51

+0.4%

Dec 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (13218)	11/15/1997 8:56:00 PM
From: TechnoWiz	Read Replies (1) of 27012

Greetings Frank: I think you have a good point. The one thing that has continued to surprise most analysts and commentators has been the incredible resiliance of this bull and its ability to continually come back from the brink following each mind-numbing correction. Also there has been the cadre of pundits (you all know who I mean) who continually get it wrong at each major bottom and one of the analysts mentioned here today on that post has a particulary poor record in this bull market. Another point is the super-bulls who were nowhere to be seen in early April are only slightly more visible this time around and have sharply tempered their forecasts. Many professionals I talk to keep telling me the market is going to retest etc etc. and as you note these ideas have already been widely telegraphed to the masses, therefore I'm not so sure. Here's why: From my perspective, I am beginning to see signs of quite bullish activity already re-emerging. For instance a number of high quality stocks are continuing to make new highs or are very close (within a few percent of them). About half a dozen Dow stocks are this strong. But the most important behaviour is the fact the last three corrections in the Nasdaq including this one (so far), have been in the realm of 200 points or so. I see distinct similarities in terms of time and price with the mid-year correction of 1996, which ended abruptly and dramatically with what was at that time a record volume reversal turnaround. I believe that led investors to believe that the market had very solid underpinnings from that receovery point. The extent of that correction was about 19.5%, the deepest correction since 1994. What I believe is more significant to this date and is behaviour that is typical of a bull market is that the atual % drop of each correction since has actually been decreasing. Furthermore, the unprecedently high volume in the record-breaking turnaround of Oct 28 was a defining moment in market history and the subsequent record pulverising recovery that eclipsed all previous record rises in terms of Dow points is highly significant. It tends to imply that there is moer to come and we may have gotten at least a foretaste of it last week. Remember, bull markets have a tendency to surprise on the upside and most have been surprised by the markets stable to firm tone, in spite of sharp correction in a number of high priced issues. Just a few ideas to ponder... rgds Wiz

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