Steve,
Long time no see. Hope all is well. Hey, we're actually getting some discussion over here again...how about that?
I think the baby boomer aspect likely dictates the pharmaceuticals part more than anything, although they play a large role with biotechs, as the deep pocket partners for the most part. The biotech key is that they have deveolped over the years to the point that many are actually starting to come through, or at least getting close...as I have said before, they remind me of computer/electronics companies as described 20-25 years ago. The sector should become an awesome one over the next 3-10 years, although the majority of companies likely won't participate...can't all be dell, cisco, intc, msft, etc.
You're absolutely right about the short-term part, as anyone looking to invest in biotechs with a short-term outlook is likely in trouble, even if research and hypotheses allow success in choosing the proper companies. In this market, all look susceptible, as valuations change....less demand for stocks means less price paid to buy...also, more buying big large caps and blue-chips for safety. There is absolutely more risk for emerging growth and early development companies, as less legit. current earnings tends to cause more trading out and bigger swings in this volatility. Nevertheless, any drops look to mean better prices.....the key is sifting through to see which are actually bargains versus simply a bit less overvalued. Hard to know what that term means in biotech at times, as some have higher market caps than others, and much may be based on the potential of the market for a given product, and the price can shoot right up with the proper news at the proper times, although not necessarilly in a maintainable fashion. Time will tell for all.
David's concerns about ORG are similar to mine, but I try to give them the benefit of the doubt, as I'd hate to see all of the investors duped. There are still more iffy biotechs than solid ones unfortunately, so we all need to be careful, but I guess this isn't necessarily different than techs, or any companies, for that matter.
Guess we all have our opinions, and nobody is necessarily right or wrong, but I think keeping the discussion going in this type of volatile market will serve us all well.
Good luck and take care,
Marshall |
