Scrapps, I finally found the story that discusses the importance of the U-2 to weapons inspection program:
cnn.com
There's much more to the story, but here is the clip I referred to earlier:
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Under the threat of attack, the U.S. could opt to monitor Iraq using spy satellites. But besides creating the impression of backing down to Saddam, such a move would also have disadvantages to intelligence collectors.
Spy satellites operate in polar orbit and pass over a target for only a few minutes per day. Such sporadic coverage would make it easier for the Iraqis to conceal their weapons operations and to move around sensitive equipment to avoid detection.
U-2s, as the looping lines on Aziz's map indicated, can fly irregular patterns, tailored to the intelligence needs and to the layout of a particular suspected weapons site.
Should the photographs reveal something, U.S. intelligence officials could make them public -- say in a U.N. Security Council meeting. Not so with spy satellite imagery, which the United States considers highly sensitive and does not release, said Jeffrey Richelson, author of several books on the U.S. intelligence community.
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I think the market will react negatively to a US attack on Iraq, as that is what happened at the start of Desert Storm. But I think the effect will be short-lived, as people figure out that the oil supply will not be significantly impacted. What I read is that a) Iraq is not producing a lot of oil anyway, due to the U.N. sanctions. b) Saudia Arabia has recently expressed an interest in increasing their oil production.
So the question remains: Will Saddam blink, and end the standoff? Because if he doesn't back down on his demands, Clinton has no choice but to begin missile attacks. We simply can't have Saddam building weapons of mass destruction, particularly given his track record. The story above says that it seems unlikely that Saddam could hit a U-2, but even an attempt will bring missiles down on SAM sites. I'm unclear as anyone on how this will play out, but fireworks of some sort seems inevitable. Saddam just isn't one to back down without some military action to help him reach the prudent decision.
DK |
