Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Bill Jackson who wrote (25974)	11/16/1997 12:53:00 AM
From: Ali Chen	Read Replies (1) of 1582873

Bill, <"BLOAT SELLS BOXES"> Yes, this is the credo of Wintel. However, there is an idea that this bloat cannot continue to infinity. Everything has limit in resources, and this initial exponential grows ("Moore law") will eventually stop. The question is - when? Just as a standard usenet analogy, modern cars are not sold entirely on the basis of engine volume. Wast majority of cars are power-limited to meet environmental requirements and other REGULATIONS like "gizzler tax". Economy, comfort, and realability are the factors that sell cars today. In addition, you cannot run a 1000 horsepower car without burning tires, and highways have still some speed limits. In computer business the saturation in system performance is already happening - the top P-II/300 machines do only 20-30% better than 150MHz machines. The Moore law projections on performance are no longer valid, and the bloat business model will slip. Look at P-II vs regular Pentium sales ratio - people do not see a value in P-II, and P-II prices have to go down. This was not built in Intel business model, and with additional price cuts I would expect some serious mismatch with Street expectations. Regards, Ali

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